ECB meeting likely a non-event but risk balance is for a hawkish surprise in tone - BofA

BAML on the ECB decision on Thursday

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's ECB policy meeting.

"Although the meeting this week is not the time for an ECB policy shift, we see risks that the tone may start changing. The announcement of the policy review itself could be a flag for an eventual policy compromise. The ECB will also have to acknowledge the improving data, although from a very low basis, and fewer tail risks from trade policy and Brexit," BofA notes.

"Given green shoots in data and further upside to core inflation, a discussion about the risk balance shifting to "neutral" could start fairly soon. Combined with increasing emphasis on the need to monitor "side effects" from negative rates, the risk balance for this week is for a hawkish surprise. The risk of hawkish-leaning undertones at the ECB meeting supports our front-end steepener recommendations. We see positive risks for the EUR from the meeting," BofA adds.

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