UK wages data to come but it's all about Brexit now for the pound
Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we get things going here on the day. Volatility has been the name of the game in trading as we begin the week with much of that seen in the pound and stocks overnight.
Those two will remain the key focus in markets once again today but also keep an eye out on dollar developments as we move closer towards next week's FOMC meeting. Traders are still pricing in a ~70% probability of a rate hike so this will be one to watch out for with talks of neutral rate and yield curve inversion widespread across markets.
0630 GMT - France Q3 final private sector payrolls
Preliminary readings can be found here. General gauge of labour market conditions in the French economy. As these are final readings, they aren't impactful by any means.
0930 GMT - UK October average weekly earnings
0930 GMT - UK October ILO unemployment rate
0930 GMT - UK November jobless claims change
Prior report can be found here. The highlight of the releases in Europe today but one that hardly matters given the current Brexit backdrop. All eyes will focus on the parliament debate and also if May can make any progress in talks with European leaders/officials over the coming days. Anyway, wages have been coming in strong over the past few readings and that is good news for British households in general, as well as consumption activity. It will eventually give the BOE more confidence in measuring conditions for a rate hike, but as mentioned now it's all about Brexit so economic data impact is very much secondary.
1000 GMT - Germany December ZEW survey current situation
Prior release can be found here. Sentiment towards the Eurozone economy has been waning and so far Q4 surveys are suggestive that any economic rebound will be more of a subdued one than a solid bounce. A minor release but feeds into overall sentiment towards the euro in the bigger picture.
1100 GMT - US November NFIB small business optimism index
Prior release can be found here. This is an index which measures the opinion of small businesses on the economic conditions in the country. Recent readings have been relatively optimistic as sentiment among small businesses remain robust. The release isn't going to have a major impact on the dollar but given talks of yield curve inversion and recession worries, readings such as these will be paramount moving forward in gauging business outlook/economic sentiment.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!
