ECB day comes early this month
Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we get ready for the European trading session ahead. It's been a relatively quiet start for currencies once again as risk sentiment softened overnight, where we saw the aussie pare gains and the yen strengthen.
That same tone is continuing a little in Asian trading so let's see if it will extend further to more movements in the European morning later.
0645 GMT - France February industrial, manufacturing production
Prior release can be found here. An indication of factory activity in the French economy, which is likely to soften slightly as what was suggested by the PMI survey data that we got beforehand. A minor data point.
0800 GMT - Italy February industrial production
Prior release can be found here. Similarly, the data here provides an indication of factory activity in the Italian economy; not really one that matters all too much.
0830 GMT - UK February GDP data
0830 GMT - UK February manufacturing, industrial, construction output
Prior report can be found here. The data here should confirm the slow start to the year for UK economic growth but it isn't going to do much to move the pound whatsoever. It's all about Brexit now as we enter the crucial phase of extension talks and all eyes will turn towards Brussels in that regard.
0830 GMT - UK February trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. General gauge of trade conditions in the UK economy. Matters little for the pound at the moment considering Brexit circumstances.
1100 GMT - US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 5 April
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
1145 GMT - ECB April monetary policy meeting decision/statement
The March meeting statement can be found here. The ECB threw a curveball to markets by revising its forward guidance and announcing TLTROs last month, so don't expect them to pull off any moves to that extent this time around. There hasn't been much fresh developments since then so they're likely to keep the statement unchanged as they adopt a wait-and-see approach on coming economic data, particularly in Q2 and Q3.
1230 GMT - ECB president Mario Draghi press conference
Draghi's presser will likely offer a repeat of what we saw in March, so expect the dovish tones to continue with emphasis on downside risks. It'll be interesting to see any commentary on TLTRO details and discussions on tiered rates though. But I wouldn't expect either to have a massive impact on the euro for the time being.
Other than this, expect plenty of focus to be on Brussels as European leaders meet to agree on a decision to extend Brexit beyond this week. That is likely to draw more attention than the ECB on the day. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!
