UK May monthly GDP data on the agenda today
Risk took a bit of a knock in late trading yesterday, with tech stocks being the ones to turn around and closing deep in the red. That gave the dollar a modest nudge higher for the most part but the euro also held its ground throughout.
As we look towards European trading today, ranges are relatively narrow with Asian equities softer but US futures aren't hinting at much thus far.
The risk mood remains the key driver for the time being, so do be reminded that earnings season is set to "officially" kick off today with financials reporting. Among the releases today, the notable ones are JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.
0600 GMT - UK May monthly GDP data
0600 GMT - UK May industrial, manufacturing, construction output
Prior release can be found here. After the dismal figures in April, economic conditions are expected to bounce back in May but the overall situation should remain highly subdued and this will be more reflected by the 3m/3m reading.
0600 GMT - UK May trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. Trade conditions suffered heavily in April but is expected to bounce back modestly in May, though it should still be weaker as compared to pre-virus levels; a similar case to everywhere else.
0600 GMT - Germany June final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn't have much impact whatsoever on markets.
0700 GMT - Spain June final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. Much like the German reading, the final release here shouldn't see much impact whatsoever.
0900 GMT - Eurozone May industrial production data
Prior release can be found here. Factory output is expected to bounce back from April to May, so that shouldn't be a surprise at this stage. The data from the months ahead - particularly July and August - may be more telling about the speed of the recovery.
0900 GMT - Germany July ZEW survey current situation, expectations
Prior release can be found here. The expectations component has rebounded strongly but it remains to be seen if the optimism can hold up amid flagging underlying demand conditions. The current situation reading should stay more subdued but if there is waning optimism, that may start to create a bit of a new narrative in the market over time once more and more leading indicators start hinting at the same in the next few months.
1000 GMT - US June NFIB small business optimism index
There was a slight bounce back from April to May in the index and expectation is for a further bounce in June as well. That should reaffirm more steady sentiment in general among small businesses in the US despite ongoing concerns with the labour market and the continued rise in virus cases across the country. That said, any major fallout can come swiftly and that will pose dangers to small business sentiment moving forward; in turn, this will be a key spot to watch in terms of gauging US economic sentiment in general.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
