Month-end, quarter-end flows to keep things more messy today
The first US presidential debate was a lame affair, in the sense that there was plenty of noise - and shouting - but very little in terms of what one can take away from the debate.
But US futures are on the move, slumping in the aftermath and that is putting some light bids in the dollar as we start to shift towards European morning trade.
If anything else, the key conclusion here is that there isn't going to a 'peaceful transition' if the election results don't go Trump's way and that is leaving for plenty of uncertainty still ahead of the polls in November.
As for trading today, well the dollar is starting to come alive a little amid the slightly softer risk tilt but month-end and quarter-end flows may yet keep things more messy in trading today - especially going into the London fix later.
Once that is cleared out, the focus should slowly move towards the US jobs report on Friday so we may not get much clarity in terms of direction until the end of the week.
0600 GMT - Germany August import price index
Prior release can be found here. A proxy and lagging indicator of price pressures in the German economy, a minor data point.
0600 GMT - Germany August retail sales data
Prior release can be found here. Consumption activity eased in July but is expected to bounce back a little in August. A miss here will only add to concerns surrounding the slowing recovery pace in the German economy, especially in terms of domestic demand.
0600 GMT - UK September Nationwide house prices
Prior release can be found here. The UK housing market continues to boom in the wake of lower rates, pent up demand, and the stamp duty holiday with more of the same expected in the coming months as well.
0600 GMT - UK Q2 final GDP figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final report and pertains to Q2 data, it isn't of much relevance to market participants at this point in time.
0645 GMT - France September preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Much like what we saw from Germany and Spain yesterday, French inflation is expected to keep more subdued this month as well and that will keep the ECB on their toes in monitoring the situation in the next few months.
0700 GMT - Switzerland September KOF leading indicator index
Prior release can be found here. The data here measures the future trends of overall economic activity in the Swiss economy. A minor data point.
0755 GMT - Germany September unemployment change, rate
Prior release can be found here. German labour market conditions are expected to show more steadiness for the time being, but a lot of this is skewed by the state wage/furlough program so it is hard to read much into the unemployment rate especially.
0800 GMT - Switzerland September Credit Suisse investor sentiment
Prior release can be found here. The reading measures analysts' expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months. A minor data point.
0900 GMT - Italy September preliminary CPI figures
Italian price pressures should reflect a similar softness with what we are seeing elsewhere around the region and this will just add to the current ECB narrative on inflation.
1100 GMT - US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 September
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. The focus will once again be on purchases as that has been one of the more bullish spots outlining that US economic conditions are not as dire as first suggested by the recent dip due to the coronavirus impact.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
