Inflation and final manufacturing PMI data in focus for the Eurozone
Well, the month-end is now over and it was without much drama although there were some key notables from trading yesterday. The dollar held its ground with EUR/USD sellers defending 1.2000 once again as USD/JPY also climbed back above 104.00.
Bitcoin hit new highs and is starting to try and test waters closer to the $20,000 mark. Meanwhile, gold is showing some signs of life with the potential for seasonality factors to drive it higher going into the new year.
Stocks finished a tad lower (though recovering off the lows yesterday) but it doesn't take away from the momentous gains during the month, with the S&P 500 still keeping above 3,600. That hints the bias is still favouring buyers for now.
The pound stays more choppy amid the Brexit back and forth, with no real solutions and continued can-kicking since the weekend. And we saw OPEC meeting get rescheduled as the bloc needs more time to get their act together this time around.
As we look towards the rest of the week, we're now switching back to the risk focus and while the year-end typically proves to be a quiet month for trading usually. This year may be a different beast as we have come to learn.
Did the Santa Claus rally top in November already? Or is there going to be more presents for investors in the coming weeks? We'll see.
In the big picture, virus news will slowly peak eventually and vaccine news is just getting started. So, there's that transitional backdrop to consider for risk/the dollar.
0645 GMT - Switzerland Q3 GDP figures
Prior (Q2) report can be found here. The Swiss economy is expected to bounce back in Q3 following the lockdown measures in Q2, much like everywhere else, so the release here isn't of much relevance as the market has long moved on from Q3 data.
0700 GMT - UK November Nationwide house prices
Prior release can be found here. The UK housing market is expected to still reflect more robust conditions heading into the year-end, with any signs of the housing momentum losing steam likely to only be seen when the stamp duty holiday expires after Q1 2021.
0815 GMT - Spain November manufacturing PMI
0830 GMT - Switzerland November manufacturing PMI
0845 GMT - Italy November manufacturing PMI
0850 GMT - France November final manufacturing PMI
0855 GMT - Germany November final manufacturing PMI
0900 GMT - Eurozone November final manufacturing PMI
The focus will be on the readings for France, Germany, and overall Eurozone but since these are final releases, they should not offer much of anything new to the overall outlook as we know that manufacturing is seen holding up slightly better than services across the region despite tighter virus restrictions.
0855 GMT - Germany November unemployment change, claims
Prior release can be found here. The furlough program continues to mask the overall impact to the labour market and it will still be tough to navigate through the data and extrapolate anything from it this month as well.
0900 GMT - Italy Q3 final GDP figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it isn't of much relevance since the market has long moved on from Q3 data as well.
0930 GMT - UK November final manufacturing PMI
The preliminary release can be found here. The final release should reaffirm the boost last month was mostly due to stockpiling and front-running exports in anticipation of Brexit, less so that manufacturing conditions was more robust despite the lockdown.
1000 GMT - Eurozone November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Inflation pressures are expected to keep more subdued with the core reading estimated to remain at +0.2% y/y. The record low reading reaffirms the conviction for the ECB to step in with more policy action next month.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
