UK monthly GDP data for January on the agenda today


The ECB did what they could to keep the peace in the market and despite Treasury yields recovering off lows yesterday, investors took in some comfort that bonds are at least finding some stability and not really surging higher - for now.

The pace of purchases by the ECB is said to be somewhere around €60-100 billion so we'll see how that pans out in the weeks/months ahead.

In any case, the market stuck with the greedier narrative this week as stocks climbed and the dollar fell. That said, the greenback is finding some steadier footing today even as US futures continue to pull a little higher heading into European trading.

All eyes are on the bond market to see if things will keep calmer ahead of the weekend.

0700 GMT - UK January monthly GDP data

Prior release can be found here. Amid lockdown measures, UK economic activity is expected to slump quite heavily in January but this isn't so much a focus point of the market anymore, as investors are more honed in on the vaccine rollout and recovery.

0700 GMT - UK January trade balance data

Prior release can be found here. Much like everywhere else, trade conditions are gradually working its way back to pre-virus levels and that will stay the narrative this year too.

0700 GMT - Germany February final CPI figures

The preliminary report can be found here. Tax changes and base effects are part of the story in the rise in German inflation to start the year and that trend may yet continue, though policymakers will surely keep brushing all that aside in 1H 2021.

0800 GMT - Spain February final CPI figures

The preliminary report can be found here. This will just reaffirm a more mixed start to inflation readings in Spain to start the new year, as base effects are likely working its way through the data during the course of 1H 2021.

1000 GMT - Eurozone January industrial production data

Prior release can be found here. Factory output is estimated to improve slightly as it continues to work its way back towards pre-virus levels but amid tighter restrictions across Europe to start the year, there might be some short-term impediments still. In any case, this is very much a lagging data point all things considered.

That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.