On the calendar for Monday:
2350 GMT - Bank of Japan minutes of the September 20 / 21 meeting
- We have the earlier Summary of Opinions
And the actual statement, decision etc. ... steady policy:
- BOJ leaves unchanged pledge to buy JGBs more or less at current pace so its holdings increase at annual pace of around 80 trln yen
- Maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1 %
- Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around zero %
And since this meting we've had the result of the October 30 / 31 meeting ... same-same:
- maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1 %
- maintains 10-year JGB yield target around zero %
- Leaves unchanged its pledge to buy JGBs so that its holdings increase at annual pace of around 80 trln yen
So ... in short ... the minutes will likely be outdated and unsurprising.
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0000 GMT - Australia - the monthly inflation indicator from the Melbourne Institute
Today we get the October result. September was ...:
'Headline' inflation: 0.3% m/m
- August 0.1%
& 2.5% for the y/y
- August 2.6%
While the trimmed mean: came in at 0.3% m/m
- August 0.1%
and 2.5% for the trimmed mean y/y
- August2.5% y/y
The target band for inflation is 2 - 3%; according to this private data we're there! Australian Bureau of Statistics (once a quarter) says not quite for the trimmed mean (a core measure):
- The weaker CPI slowed the AUDNZD a bit. AUDJPY cracking lower.
- Lower CPI send the AUDUSD lower. Tests key swing area.
- Australian CPI for 3Q 0.6% vs. 0.8% estimate. Trimmed mean 0.4% vs 0.5% est.
- More on Australian inflation: "data overstate the true rate of inflation"
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0000 GMT - New Zealand - ANZ's measure of Commodity Prices
- for October
- prior +0.8% m/m % +11.5% y/y
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0100 GMT - New Zealand - Monthly Economic Indicators report
- For October 2017
The long time it took to get the election result announced may have given the economic indicators a bit of a wobble for this month
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0030 GMT - Japan - Nikkei services and composite PMIs for October
- priors of 51.0 and 51.7 respectively
Earlier in the month we got the manufacturing PMI from Japan, which indicated slightly softer growth from September, but was still solidly in expansion
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0100 GMT - Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks at a meeting with business leaders in Nagoya
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0110 GMT - Bank of Japan JGB purchases (1-3 and 3-5 year maturities)
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0200 GMT - Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of expectations for Q4
- Inflation expectations out 2 years
- For Q3, the 2 year expectations fell to 2.09% (Q2 was at 2.17%)
This can be a market mover if inflation expectations change sharply - lower should weigh on the NZD, and vice versa. I am not expecting much change though.
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So, a busy day coming up on the known unknowns calendar. Into the UK timezone, there will be more from the Bank of Japan - chief economist Toshitaka Sekine gives a speech. That is at 0700 GMT.
