It's a sparse day for economic data in the Asian timezone, with items from New Zealand and Australia, nothing from Japan or China (there might be Chinese September FDI, no scheduled date or time for sure though)
2145GMT - New Zealand - Card spending for September
- retail, expected is +0.4% m/m, prior was 0.4%
- total, prior was 0.1% m/m
0030GMT - Australia - housing finance data for August
- Home loans m/m, expected is +4.7%, prior was +0.3%
- Investment lending m/m, prior was +0.5%
- Owner-occupied loan value m/m, prior was +2.2%
The housing finance data could be all over the place today ...
The Aug data will see major disruptions due to changes associated with increased capital requirements and APRA's 'macroprudential' measures, aimed at managing risks around investor activity. Jul-Aug saw banks tighten lending criteria for investor housing loans, and an increase in the rates on these loans by an average of 27bps. Industry data shows a big surge in owner-occupier approvals in Aug, a likely indirect 'spillover' effect from tighter conditions for investor loans. We expect the official numbers to show a 7.5% jump. The total value of loans - covering both owner occupiers and investors - will give a better gauge of conditions for the next few months.
(That's via Westpac)
This could make it hard to interpret.
The thing to watch for the immediate impact is the 'headline' figures .... if it's a miss then the AUD should take a bit of a hit to the downside as some longs get stopped out. A beat, or on expected, will add weight to confidence the Australian economy is progressing along with transition from resource-extraction (that would be mining) related activity to more domestic focused sectors (such as housing) I'll have some levels as we get closer.
