Trade balance data from China is due at (or around) 0200GMT
Its normally now published in 'yuan terms' first, with USD terms following a few hours later.
For the yuan terms -
China trade balance for February
- expected is 341.00bn, prior was 402.20bn
Exports for February:
- expected -11.3%, prior was -6.6%
Imports:
- expected is -11.7%, prior was -14.4%
-
Later, in USD terms:
China trade balance for February:
- expected +$51.00bn, prior was $63.29bn
Exports:
- expected -14.5%, prior was -11.2%
Imports:
- expected -12.0%, prior was -18.8%
-
While a whopper trade surplus is expected, falling exports and falling imports paint a much darker picture for the Chinese economy. While there is the ongoing debate about the 'false invoicing' effect the declines in both exports and imports reflect weaker demand abroad ond at home.
The NPC continues today. All indications from the Congress are that China wants to ramp up stimulus efforts. This has benefitted markets there (I posted on the big commodity gins in China yesterday ... these followed through overnight) and elsewhere.
