Due from New Zealand at 2245GMT:

May trade balance,

  • expected is -100m, prior was +123m

Exports,

  • expected is 4.3bn, prior was 4.17bn

Imports,

  • expected is 4.30bn, prior was 4.04bn

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The NZD has recovered some ground from its recent lows. I wouldn't call it an impressive performance, but is less bad than it has been ever since the RBNZ cut rates earlier in the month.

I expect continued sideways action. Fundamentals point to more downside, but market positioning (short kiwi) is making it sticky to the downside now, buyers covering giving it some support. This is a 4-hour candle chart ... technically it still looks very heavy, and if the trend is your friend .... you know what to do!

ps. If anyone ever asks you "What is the trend?"

The correct answer is "What is your timeframe?"

You're welcome.