Previously seen in Q4 2019

Reuters' latest poll on economists shows that expectations for the RBA to raise rates from current record low is being scaled further back now. The median of the 39 economists polled sees the central bank only hiking rates in Q1 2020 now from the previous poll median of Q4 2019.

Expect this to become more of a theme next year as well with the RBA continuing to deal with a host of issues currently:

  • Household debt is elevated and remains a real issue
  • Inflation still stagnating just under the 2% to 3% target band
  • Wage growth continues to remain subdued
  • Housing market continues to soften

The only good news that I can see is that the US-China trade dispute - along with the issues above - has so far failed to dampen economic growth in the country. That points to some resilience at least but it's not going to help the central bank all too much when the above issues persist into next year.