- world trade has hit a “soft patch” amid euro appreciation
The latest EU Commission Spring forecasts out on the wires
- Eurozone economy to grow 1.2% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015
- Eurozone inflation to slow to 0.8% in 2014 vs 1.3% in 2013 but rise again to 1.2% in 2015
- Eurozone 2014 unemployment forecast lowered to 11.8% from 12%, 2015 11.4% from 11.7%
- German GDP forecasts held at 1.8% and 2.0% for 2014 and 2015
- UK GDP 2014 raised to 2.7% vs 2.5% prev and 2015 raised to 2.5% vs 2.4%
- UK 2015 unemployment lowered to 6.3% from 6.5%
- French 2014 GDP forecast held at 1%
- Italian GDP 2014 and 2015 forecasts held at 0.6% and 1.2%
- Spanish 2014 GDP forecast raised to 2.1% from 1.7%
The European Commission’s spring forecast points to a continuing economic recovery in the European Union following its emergence from recession a year ago but says the biggest risk is renewed loss of confidence.
Siim Kallas, Commission Vice-President says
“The recovery has now taken hold. Deficits have declined, investment is rebounding and, importantly, the employment situation has started improving. Continued reform efforts by Member States and the EU itself are paying off. This ongoing structural change reminds me of the profound adjustment that the central and eastern European economies undertook in the 1990s and in subsequent years, linked to their joining the EU exactly 10 years ago.
Their experience shows how important it is to embrace structural reforms early on and to stay the course, whatever challenges may be faced along the way. In this spirit, we must not lessen our efforts to create more jobs for Europeans and strengthen growth potential.
EURUSD still 1.3874
Full EU Spring Forecast here