The recent period of real and perceived strength in the Euro since mid July has been a feature of a broadly event dominated market. There is a re-appraisal of the prospects for the Euro going on, and a related flow of real money moving into Euro equity markets. The re-weighting process now in tow seems to be predominately at the expense of EM countries.
The search for undervalued `gems` offering potential investors capital appreciation prospects, has been a quest that we are used to seeing in EM, it is somewhat of a surprise to see that focus turn on European equities. Some of these `gems` have already been unearthed; Peugeot shares have shot up nearly 90% in the last 6 months, and generally low valuations coupled with improving market share have improved the prospects of others such as Airbus. The predominately held view is that there are further opportunities to be found, and with growth prospects improving, there is a sense of optimism behind Euroland PLC that has been missing for a long while.
Formidable obstacles stand in the way however. The re-election of Mrs Merkel is as sure a sign as any, that continued austerity in return for bailouts will be a familiarly unpopular theme for some. There will be significant roadblocks on the path to banking union, and continue to expect verbal intervention from European politicians to a continued appreciation of the Euro. Add to this the inevitability of the dreaded `T` word from the Fed being implemented, and I think there is a case on balance for the Euro to be weaker through the final quarter of the year.
The whole world needs a stable and prospering Europe. The second and third quarters have demonstrated a collective in-take of breath as a step back from the precipice took place. Much politically difficult work to do, and many people to placate and convince that their hardship is necessary. These same people need to see an end to that regime, and as quickly as possible, but somehow, I don`t see that on the agenda. Fingers crossed.
