Near the end of 2013, I wrote about one of the most crowded calls out there — that the euro would decline in 2014.
Bloomberg surveyed 46 analysts about the euro in 2014 and the mean estimate was for a decline to 1.28 — nearly 10 cents. Of the 46 analysts, 42 expected EUR/USD to decline next year.
Here we are 10 weeks later and the euro is near a two-year high and testing 1.40.
The analysts are beginning to throw in the towel as the euro rallies today despite the soft eurozone CPI numbers.
Morgan Stanley has raised its euro forecast today to 1.41 at the end of Q2 from 1.31. They remain bearish by year-end at 1.33 but that’s much higher than their initial 1.24 estimate. The rest of the consensus continues to chase its tail but is slowly moving higher.
EUR/USD consensus forecast
