The general feeling is that the second round is a almost a done deal but traders are still taking short term hedges
We've been watching the options vols for EURJPY recently as that was where we saw a lot of first round hedging. The 1 month at the money option vols haven't been pointing to anything happening so I drilled it down to 1 week vols and there is some movement there.
EURJPY 1 week ATM option vols
EURUSD 1w
EURGBP 1w
As you can see, we're not close to the types of levels seen before the first round but there is hedging taking place, and a lot of that will be unwound if Macron wins through. We're seeing the euro softer so far today, and I suspect hedging is the main driver so be on watch for that to increase into the European close.
The size of these moves is a good gauge for the size of moves we may see when markets open after the election. As I've mentioned previously, I'm not expecting to see the type of volatility we saw after the first round, this time.
