• Japan Banking Minister Kamei: Need second extra budget of around 10 trln yen for current fiscal year
  • BOE’s Dale: Challenge for future will be pace at which we withdraw QE. Will have to take stimulus withdrawal month by month – Paper
  • French Sept consumer spending +2.3% m/m, expected +0.5%
  • BOE’s Posen: Going to have to reverse extreme policy measures in the medium term
  • Shanghai share index ends up 1.9% at 10-week closing high
  • Russia central bank shifts intervention level to 35.50 rbls/basket. Central bank buys around $1.0 bln Thursday and more than $500 mln Friday
  • Euro zone Oct flash PMI better than expected; services 52.3, expected 51.3, manufacturing 50.7, expected 50.0, composite 53.0, expected 51.6
  • German IFO institute Oct business climate index 91.9, expected 92.0. Had been market rumour it was to be 95.0
  • IFO’s Abberger: Euro exchange rate of over $1.50 would be burden on exports in long-run
  • ECB’s Sramko: Strong euro could spark problems for the euro zone. Says dollar weak at the moment
  • UK Q-3 GDP -0.4% q/q, -5.2% y/y, demonstrably worse than forecastsof +0.2%, -4.6% respectively. Sterling collapses
  • Euro zone August industrial orders +2.0% m/m, stronger than expected +1.2%

Well that was a jolly jape. If you’ve been trading cable or any of the sterling crosses this morning you’ll probably be in need to a straitjacket round about now.

Anyways suffice it to say, sterling is down big on the day, the damage done by a truly horrendous Q-3 GDP release (see above)

Cable started around 1.6635 and rallied strongly early, bolstered by various BOE comments regarding the eventual withdrawal from/reversal of QE. (see above). It got to a session high 1.6693 where it ran into a brick wall.

Good buying emerged in the EUR/GBP cross around the psychological .9000 level and this combined with evident caution ahead of the GDP data release started to weigh on cable.

By the time we got to the release, cable was languishing around 1.6615. From there it was all change. Cable lost a big figure in the blink of an eye and continued lower to eventually hit a session low of 1.6395. There was talk of an Asian sovereign buying on the way down. I heard of it when cable was around 1.6440, but think he was in initally in the high 1.64’s. We’re presently at 1.6425.

EUR/GBP meanwhile is up at .9155 having been as high as .9179.

Obviously after such poor growth data, speculation is now rife we’ll see the Old Lady extend QE on November 5th.

EUR/USD is hardly changed on the day, presently at 1.5035. The BIS stepped in during early European trading selling up around 1.5030 and that ellicted a brief sojourn to a session low 1.4993.

Some decent French data (consumer spending/PMI) soon had the pairing ticking higher again. There was even a rumour the October ifo business climate number was going to come in at 95.0, rather better than than the median forecast of 92.0. In the end that proved to be just so much b.s. The release of the IFO number, being at about expected level, was seen as a bit of a disappointment and this helped stall the EUR/USD rally.

Another thing helping cap the advance is talk of sell orders layered all the way from 1.5045 up to 1.5100, where the next barrier option interest is seen lying.

USD/JPY advanced early going from around 91.50 to a session high 91.92, the yen not helped any by a Japanese official touting the need for a second budget for the current fiscal year (see above) From the high we’ve seen a gradual drift lower, presently at 91.50, where we began. Talk of stops parked just above 92.00.