- German November PPI +0.1% m/m, -5.9% y/y vs median forecasts of +0.2%, -5.9% respectively
- Shanghai share index down 2%. Posts 4% weekly loss, lowest close in 3 weeks
- BOJ Governor Shirakawa: Has no preset ideas on future policy
- French December business morale 89, down from upwardly revised 90 in November, and below median forecast of 91
- Saudi oil minister: “Oil price of $75 to $80 is something we all want” OPEC meeting will not change output -Al Hayat newspaper
- Ifo December German business climate index 94.7, marginally better than median forecast of 94.5; current assessment 90.5, marginally better than median forecast of 90.0
- Ifo’s Abberger: Recovery in economy to continue at moderate pace
- UK November PSNCR £14.671 bln, better than median forecast of £17.5 bln but still highest November figure on record. PSNB £20.315 bln, better than median forecast of £23.0 bln, but still highest for any month on record
- Euro zone October trade balance +8.8 bln euros, better than median forecast +5.8 bln. But Septembers surplus downwardly revised to +0.9 bln from +3.7 bln
- Swiss KOF institute forecasts Swiss economy to shrink 2.9% in 2009; grow 0.6% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011
Maybe it’s me, but seems the forex markets are starting to have a real end of year feel. Bursts of action interspersed with long periods of non-activity.
EUR/USD sits at 1.4382, exactly (and I mean exactly) where it was when I sat down nearly 7 hours ago. Market tried downside, then the upside and got nowhere. Talk of Asian sovereign buying down around 1.4308 in Asia overnight, protecting 1.4300 barrier option interest. Same sovereign sold up around 1.4400 this morning, effectivelycapping the topside.
Cable opened around 1.6180. Tried the downside initially before bouncing nicely. The rally accelerated when stops above 1.6200 and then 1.6220 were tripped in quick succession and we went up to test technical resistance at 1.6250, which held.
Cable had already slipped back ahead of the release of a raft of UK economic data at 09:30 GMT. It sat around 1.6195 as the numbers came out and the better than expected PSNCR/PSNB numbers, although still crap, have given the pairing some marginal underpinning. We sit presently at 1.6210.
USD/JPY is up at 90.28 from an early 89.70. Further upside likely to be a grind given ongoing talk of Japanese exporter sell interest. Some talk of decent-sized stops up through 90.70 though.