- ECB’s Liikanen: Freefall in euro zone economy has stopped, but “it will take time before we can speak about economic recovery” in region. Official sees global recovery starting in China and India. Japanese economy showing positive signs
- Bank of France industry business sentiment index 87 in July vs 84 in June. BOF survey sees “very slight rise” in industrial activity, slight improvement in services. Sees Q-3 GDP flat.
- French June industry output +0.3% m/m, vs median forecast of +0.2% May revised to +2.8% from initial 2.6% – Insee
- Euro zone sentix index rises to -17.0 in August from -31.3 in July, better than median forecast of -25.8 and highest level since August 2008
- Japan oppositi0n’s Okada: Intervention in forex markets undesireable if markets in line with fundamentals. There are limits to Japan’s reliance on export-led growth. Doesn’t rule out new economic package
All in all, rather a quiet start to the week. Sterling weakness is the main feature, while aussie strength probably comes second.
Cable is down at 1.6645 from an early 1.6715, having earlier posted a session low 1.6612, while EUR/GBP is up at .8530 from an early .8495.
There is a fair amount of caution ahead of event risk Wednesday. Then we have the latest BOE quarterly inflation report, which will likely see BOE growth forecasts marked lower and deflationary risks highlighted.
On the same day we have the UK June jobs report which will be crappy. For today, talk of buy orders down at 1.6600/10 in cable and sell orders in EUR/GBP up at .8550.
EUR/USD sits 1.4200, effectively unchanged on the day. Reports of Asian sovereign selling north of 1.4200 have helped curtail gains. Sell orders seen at 1.4220 up through 1.4250 with buy stops seen gathering around 1.4260. On the downside, buy orders noted at 1.4150/60.
USD/JPY sits at 97.15 again effectively unchanged on the day.
AUD/USD has made some ground this morning, presently up at 8420 from an early .8390. Talk of sell orders lying in wait up at .8440/50.
