- German Ifo business climate index 109.8 in March, slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of 109.6
- Ifo economist Wohlrabe: Ifo increase in March mainly due to better retail sales
- ECB’s Coeure: ECB’s role is not to cure weak fiscal institutions or ease concerns about fiscal sustainability
- More Coeure: Eurobonds are part of solution. But can’t see eurobonds coming into being soon
- Japan’s top currency official Nakao: Japan carefully watching situation in Europe
- EU’s Rehn: ECB’s LTRO has prevented credit squeeze in Europe
- More Rehn: Sees ‘reassuring decision’ this week on stability facility
- Dutch March business confidence -2.6 pts, down from -1.5 pts in February
- Italy March consumer confidence rises to 96.8, up from revised 94.4 in February (prev 94.2) and demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 93.7
EUR/USD effectively unchanged on the day, presently at 1.3240 compared to the 1.3250 that greeted me first thing. We saw some very slight slippage early, but this was clawed back on the release of slightly better than expected German Ifo and demonstrably better than expected Italian consumer confidence data.
The rally off the data though was short-lived and notable selling out of the Middle East caused a notable swoon which took us fleetingly below 1.3200 (session low 1.3192) before recovery. There appears to me to be little rhyme or reason behind recent moves and EUR/USD remains ostensibly stuck in a narrow range, with 1.3100-1.3300 durable parameters. Sell stops seen through 1.3190 now, buy stops through 1.3300. Talk of 1.3300 and 1.3315 barriers.
USD/JPY fractionally firmer at 82.80 from early 82.65. Talk of sell orders clustered 82.90/00, buy stops parked above there.
US treasury yields are firmer this morning (benchmark 10 year at 2.2784 from the 2.2496 I jotted down first thing) and this will be providing support.
