The August CPI from the Eurozone due at 0900GMT on Thursday 31 August 2017
- Headline expected 1.4% y/y, prior 1.3%
- Core expected 1.2%, prior 1.2%
Previews via ...
Morgan Stanley:
- We think that HICP inflation likely accelerated to 1.4%Y in August, from 1.3%Y in July.
- If our forecast is right, the HICP ex tobacco index should have decreased to 101.55,after 101.33(100.14 in August 2016).
- The acceleration will be mostly driven by energy inflation, which likely jumped to 3.7%Y after 2.2%Y.
- Core inflation likely stayed at 1.2%Y.Food alcohol and tobacco probably decelerated by 20bps to 1.2%Y.
Goldman Sachs:
- We expect Euro area annual headline inflation to rise by 0.2pp to +1.5%yoy in August, and core inflation to be unchanged at 1.2%yoy.
Barclays:
- We expect euro area headline HICP inflation to edge up in August to 1.5% y/y up from 1.3% y/y in July and June.
- We see core HICP at 1.2% y/y, similar to the July reading.
HSBC:
- Eurozone inflation in July was unchanged from June and in line with expectations, at 1.3% y-o-y, the lowest print since December.
- Core inflation picked up slightly, reverting back to the 1.2% y-o-y peak seen in April.
- We expect inflation to rise to 1.5% y-o-y in August and September before falling again later in the year due to the base effects from energy.
- The strong euro should also soon start exerting downward pressure on inflation, likely causing the ECB to revise down its inflation forecast in September
