EURUSD forex technical analysis 4 May 2015
The euro continues to slide to new lows today as some of the steam comes out of the recent rally
Apart from the main exceptions of Spain and France, the manufacturing PMI's still pointed to a recovering Eurozone and the although the Eurozone Sentix index fell to 19.6 from 20.0 in May, the current conditions component rose to the highest since July 2011 at 13 from 9. Expectations took a dive though to 26.5 from 31.5 in April
The euro looks to be suffering from the same illness as cable had last week, rallyitus. It's when a rally runs out of steam or hits reality and then takes a break
Speaking of breaks, we couldn't make another upside one on Friday at 1.1290 and we're close to one happening at 1.1107/15 if support doesn't hold there
EURUSD daily
While we hold this level and the 1.1100 big figure the buyers will feel confident about the upside. If it goes then the next big level is down at the 1.1040/50 area
The euro has had a very strong run so it's natural to see the trend at least refresh itself, if it's a trend that is to continue. A break below the 1.1040/50 area will likely get these near term longs throwing in the towel and that could mean a quick trip back towards the years lows
With London shut liquidity will be an issue today but that should get a boost when the yanks touch down.
Factory orders is the highlight of the calendar and a big jump is expected (2.0% exp vs 0.2% in Feb). It's for March so although lagging, will have a bearing on the Q1 GDP revisions. We'll also get the durables revisions too. That's all at 14.00 gmt
The only other thing of note is the latest ECB QE figures at 13.45 gmt. There's no real expectations for it but we could see a reaction if there's a big variation from the €60bn per month target
