EUR/USD up 19 pips to 1.1585 today

EUR/USD daily chart

Societe Generale Research maintains a tactical bearish bias on EUR/USD.

"Last week's MPC meeting surprised the market, but the surprises that matter from here, are the economic ones. If the US delivers upside surprises and the UK delivers negative ones, then GBP/USD can start a new leg lower from here. That said, while we will get G3 UK GDP data next week, and a host of September output numbers, those may be a bit too historic to really inform growth views," SocGen notes.

"Weak UK data can deliver a weaker pound, but it won't go far without EUR/USD breaking down. That too, depends on growth. It still feels like just a question of time before we break 1.15, but while EUR/USD positioning is light, sentiment is skewed towards being pessimistic about the growth outlook. Just another way of saying EUR/USD could remain in a tiny range for a while longer before it does break," SocGen adds.

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