The was no Tuesday, the low was on Thursday. Neither the high or the low extending outside last weeks range. The range for the week was a paltry 131 pips – the most narrow trading week since July 20, 2007. That’s a lot of weeks ago. To bring even more symettry to the week, the midpoint of the week comes in at 1.23199 and with less than a half hour until the 4 PM close, the price is at 1.2317. The price is closing up modestly (last week the price closed at 1.22926).
Looking at the hourly chart, the price fell below a trend line rising from the August 2 low on Wednesday, broke back above the line on Thursday and fell back below it today. The line is not much of a trend line per se, but it does tend to cause a reaction when the price gets close to it (i.e. , bullish on a break above, bearish on a move below). As a result, I will continue to keep the line in place into next weeks trade.
The 100 and 200 hour MA are starting to converge which tends to be a precursor to a move away. The 100 hour MA (blue line) is at 1.2324, while the 200 hour MA is at 1.2329. Like the trend line, the MA lines tended to lead to a move away on breaks this week. So next week, I will continue to gather bullish or bearish clues from the price and those MAs (Price above MA is bullish. Price below is bearish).
With little expected over the weekend and no data coming out in the US or EU on Monday and Tuesday the odds on bet is more of the same as the new week begins. So the rule early next week is to be patient and wait. On the topside 1.2384-90 is topsid resistance. On the downside 1.2259 is support. Watch the 100 and 200 hour MA for intraday bullish and bearish bias.
