Friday and today saw the Euro top out at 1.0800 again but the dip buyers aren't letting it stray far
Once again the 1.0800 area has failed to break properly with 1.0802 the high today.
According to the jungle drums, leveraged accounts like loading up on the dips while interbank players have parked themselves in a 1.0700-1.0800 range.
There is some notable changes to the offers above 1.0800-1.0880 as they are said to have dropped slightly in size recently. To give you an idea of how markets tend to work, the pop last week may have lessened the offers around the 1.0820/30 area but also some of the higher orders might have been moved lower as traders think that they won't get filled at higher levels. 1.0800/80 is quite a wide range and in slow markets, some clients with orders higher up can get impatient and move them down. Overall the whole area still looks strong for offers but the dynamics can change day to day.
Back to the action today, the euro is just rolling down to a new low and pretty much to the level we were at before the NFP.
EURUSD H4 chart
The 100 dma has played a role in the highs of today and last week. The 100 H4 ma is helping with support around the 1.0700 area, so there's plenty to keep the price contained. Further down, the 55 dma is scrolling up to 1.0600 and that's going to add some additional support on a break of 1.0700. It's also joined by the 200 H4 ma. For shorter-term watchers, the 38.2 fib of the Jan rally is at 1.0641.
The 1.0700 range that everyone is watching was confirmed by where the NFP spike lower stopped.
EURUSD 15m chart
Taking that move out of the equation, we're sitting on support from Friday around 1.0725/30 so expect to see some stops blown if that level breaks.
The euro weakness, just looks exactly that rather than anything USD driven. EURGBP and EURJPY are on their lows and USDJPY is not doing a lot sitting just above 112.50 (for a change).
One other thing trader have their eye on is the French elections and the stories coming out of France are gaining more market attention. That will mean we could start to see the euro move on election news out of France. The big risk is a Le Pen win but the current market consensus is that she could win the first round but lose out in the second (what could go wrong there). Desks note that players are trading options and gamma around the elections but some macro accounts are also adding straight EURUSD longs. Keep an eye out later too, as one of the runners, Francois Fillon is due to hold a press conference at 15.00GMT, which could be related to these allegations of paying his wife and kids for fake jobs. The news seems to have sunk his chances of progressing so this might be where he bows out officially.
