This, in my experience, is a dangerous thing to do. Overnight we saw Asian central banks buying on dips below 1.2900 and whilst they are not necessarily the best pickers of market levels, it does suggest to me that the EUR/USD market hasn’t quite run out of bullish momentum just yet.

I hear there are quite large stops building above 1.3020 and 1.3050 so I’m thinking we may get one final push higher through these stops on to the 1.31 handle before the consolidation period really sets in.

From a technical perspective, the 5 day MA is about to cross the 100-day and this will encourage some buying from model funds. Whether it’s enough to see a test of the 38.2% retracement level (1.5160/1.1885) at 1.3140 remains to be seeen. I favour a short-term 1.2850/1.3150 range with a medium term bias towards selling rallies.