The EURUSD gapped lower from Friday’s low on the back of the France/Greece election results (and uncertainty as a result of them). Better German Factory Orders and the magnet from the gap opening (all gaps get filled, right?) has the pair grinding higher. Nevertheless, as NY enters, the price is finding resistance at the 1.3039 area. Levels to focus on today:

  • 38.2% of the move down from the Friday post Employment high comes in at 1.30388. The high reached 1.3044 but has not been able to develop any momentum.
  • If momentum is developed, the 50% of the same move down comes in at 1.30652.
  • The gap from Friday gets filled at 1.3079.

On the downside, the price is moving below the intraday support trendline on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3026 level. Other support level to consider today is the:

  • 100 bar MA at the 1.3013 currently. The price moved above this level late in the early Asian session and has not tested the MA since.
  • The 38.2% of the days range comes in at the 1.30093 level
  • The 50% of the days range at 1.29886.

Although gaps do tend to get filled, it does not have to be on the day of the gap. This can cause some anxious/fearful moments along the way. Stay above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and move above the 38.2% at 1.30388 and things are progressing nicely. Move/stay below each and there may be more reasons to sell than to buy.