Traders are still unsure as to the direction of the EURUSD but the last hour or so of trading suggest the downside is direction for early NY trade. The price has moved below the converged 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.2324 area and the midpoint of last weeks weeks range (also below the 4 PM close at 1.2331). This hours close on the hourly will be the first bar today that will close below the MAs (that’s worth something, isn’t it?).
The range today is 73 pips so far (low reached 1.22948). Stay below the MA levels (at 1.2324) and the next target is the low from Friday at 1.2387. The low from last week at 1.2259 and low from August 10th at 1.2240 become the next obvious targets below in what should be a difficult trade. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is the only release today (-0.05 vs -0.15 last month). Gold is down $2.60, Oil is unchanged, DJ Futures are down -18, S&P futures are unchanged.
Get to and through the next target and manage your shorts stop lower. The normal range for the last 20 days is 118 pips. If the market keeps the negative bias that leaves 35 pips from the low (1.2260). This would take the price just above last weeks low and would be a normal day for the pair. No promises though.
