Having the 4th of July on a Wednesday is simply not good for trading. With the range at 40 pips and NY traders heading to the beach (or if cutting back and heading to the back yard for a hot dog and a beer), it is one of those days to not expect much.
For the EURUSD the pair is trading near the 38.2% of the move up from Thursday and Friday. That level comes in at the 1.25826. The nearest trend line resistance comes in at 1.2600 and 1.2631 respectively (see chart). The high for the day is at 1.2613. These levels – for lack of a better idea – are the steps to a further bullish move.
The price is closer to downside support with the lows for the last two days at 1.25749 and 1.25673 the next targets. Down below that is more important support at the 50% of the move up from Thursday/Friday at 1.25488, and the 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.2539 and 1.2544 respectively. A move down to this area today would typically make for an important decision for the buyers and sellers. With the 4th of July less than 24 hours away, however, I would expect shorts anxious to trade, to put in their bids with stops below.