In quiet Columbus day trading (banks closed in the US) the EURUSD is keeping the gains seen in Asian trading. The moves seem more dollar related as traders adjust expectations of a US Fed that might not be as hawkish as once thought.
EURUSD has been able to stay above the 100 hour MA at he 1.2677 (also 38.2% retracement).
From a technical perspective the price moved above the 200 hour MA (green line) and extended higher. The breach of the 100 hour MA and 38.2% of the move down from last weeks high, has seen less momentum as the price tests the 50% of the move down from last week (see chart above at the 1.26976 level. The quiet, holiday like trading is contributing to the slow activity. Nevertheless, what is the early “line in the sand” for trading this week is the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement (bullish above/bearish below).
Traders who are bullish can lean against that level as support. Traders who have a desire to be short, probably can wait for a move below this level for a confirmation that the buyers don’t have much strength in the “buy the EURUSD” trade.
When the price trades above and below the 100 and 200 hour MA, the market is deciding what it wants to do. In this type of environment, I find it best to do more watching, be more patient, pick your levels and if you are right, don’t expect a whole lot. Activity can be choppy.
