I am hard-pressed to find too much inspiration from the action in the EURUSD today.
- The range is 56 pips
- The price has moved up and down a few times in that range
- Construction output was up 1.5% but still down -0.3% for the year. New car registrations were up 6.4%
- US data came in as expected
- There are talks with Merkel and Putin but nothing is coming out of it worthwhile (so far)
There just is not a lot to go on.
However, if we dig further is there some clues for a trade?
- The range is only 56 pips. The average over the last month is 103 pips.Can we anticipate an extension outside the range? Yes, why not
- The close from yesterday was 1.2807. The price is below that level
- The midpoint of the days range is 1.28074 – close to the closing price.
- The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart are at 1.2803-05 respectively (blue and green lines in the chart below). In the last 35 minutes since the move back below the price has stayed below the MA levels.
The topside was tested. That did not get very far. The last move suggests an attempt to try the downside. It might not materialize into much but risk can defined above now. Look for patient sellers to continue to sell on moves toward the 1.2807 area with traders giving up on a move above that area of resistance.
The midpoint of the weeks trading range is 1.27506. This would be a target on a break below the days lows.
EURUSD 5 minute chart showing a shift lower
