The great problem of the 21st century isn't too many babies, it's too few
We've been programmed for hundreds of years to worry about overpopulation. But like all trades, once it gets too crowded, it reverses.
That's what's slowly happening in global population. It continues to rise because of high birth rates in the poorest countries in the world but it's turning and developed countries are leading the way.
Look at the chart this week in the FT. It shows the collapse of South Korea's birth rate. It's fallen almost 25% in four years and is now below 1. That means that unless the trend reverses, the population of the country will be halved in a lifetime and will begin to decline as soon as 2028.
In the US, the rate is 1.77, in Japan it's 1.43.
The world leader is Niger at 7.2 with half the country now under the age of 15. That's followed by Somalia at 6.1 but if falls off quickly from there and is inversely correlated to wealth. The median country is Tunisia at 2.1 which is the replacement rate. That means half the countries in the world will have negative population growth soon excluding immigration.
Even the big population countries -- China and India -- are no longer tailwinds. India is at 2.3 and China is down to 1.6 despite the end of the one-child policy, a telling trend.
It's not just richer countries where the birth rate is falling. Puerto Rico is at just 1.1, Poland and Ukraine both at 1.3 and Brazil at 1.7.
The changes in these countries have been shockingly quick. In 1970 Brazil was at 5. Mexico is at 2.2 now compared to 6.8 in 1970.
Governments are beginning to take notice. There is increasing pressure to improve childcare and benefits but there has been a cultural shift in many places against having children. I believe that governments will be paying people significant sums to have children within a decade.
Italy is particularly rough shape due to years of a low birth rate. A draft budget from the current government planned to offer state-held agricultural land rent-free for 20 years to anyone who had a third child. They were also offered zero-interest loans to buy a home.
