US GDP will be bad. What degree of bad? Ryan noted the consensus at -1.8% but some estimates as low as -2.4%, which is a dreadful quarter by any measure.

But it’s in market terms Q1 GDP is ancient history with the end of Q2 less than a week away. There’s also a line of thinking that a weak report will mean a better snap-back for the remainder of the year and those good headlines will be a tailwind for the US dollar.

There’s a case for fading a poor headline but the real report to watch is durable goods orders. The capital goods orders non-defense ex-air is expected +0.5% and that’s the headline that’s more likely to have a lasting impact. Ideally, there is a soft GDP report and a strong durable goods report and you can buy the dip on the US dollar, or vice versa.