WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following excerpt is from the analysis
published by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office Thursday of the FY2011
budget deal:

In response to multiple requests for estimates of the effects of
post-2011 outlays from H.R. 1473, CBO has developed additional
information about the budgetary impact of H.R. 1473 in years beyond
2011. CBO has not completed a precise estimate of the outlay effects for
H.R. 1473 for years after 2011. However, CBO estimates that enactment of
H.R. 1473 would produce federal outlays over the 2011-2021 period that
are between $20 billion and $25 billion lower than the amount of outlays
that would be expected from having 2011 appropriations set at the same
level as 2010 appropriations.

That range of $20 billion to $25 billion represents the change in
outlays, relative to a continuation of funding at the 2010 level, only
from the difference in appropriations for 2011not from any changes in
appropriations in subsequent years that might result from the 2011
action. Thus, it does not reflect any change that would occur in
subsequent baseline projections for discretionary funding for fiscal
years 2012 through 2021. CBO has not prepared any such update to its
multiyear baseline projections.

The estimated range provided above is lower than the estimated net
change in budget authority (the authority for federal agencies to enter
into obligations) for 2011 that would result from enactment of H.R.
1473, compared with earlier continuing resolutions. For example, Public
Law 111-322, which funded the government’s operations through March 4,
provided (on an annualized basis) budget authority of $1,087.5 billion
for nonemergency appropriations for fiscal year 2011an amount that is
relatively close to the funding level for 2010.

In contrast, H.R. 1473 would provide net new budget authority of
$1,049.8 billion, producing a difference of $37.7 billion. That
difference reflects reductions in budget authority for BOTH regularly
appropriated discretionary programs and some mandatory programs. Many of
the reductions in budget authority for mandatory programs would have
little or no effect on outlays in 2011 or future years.

As a result, the estimated change in cumulative outlays under H.R.
1473 ($20 billion to $25 billion) is less than the reduction in 2011
budget authority ($37.7 billion). The vast majority of the $20 billion
to $25 billion reduction in projected outlays would fall in the
five-year period spanning fiscal years 2012 through 2016, with a small
amount occurring over the 2017-2021 period.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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