It may end up as a bit of a passable event if anything else


Headline job print of +160k (prior +164k), unemployment rate of 3.7% (prior 3.7%), and average hourly earnings of +3.0% y/y (prior +3.2%). It pretty much says that markets are expecting a "as you were" kind of report from the US this time around.

And I won't argue that such a stance is wrong because even a more solid report will do little to shift expectations surrounding the US economy and more importantly, the Fed.

Fed members had chances of walking back expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting but so far none of them were hardly convincing (except Esther George). Markets are still seeing a 25 bps rate cut as a done deal as of now.

As such, I would say the only thing to watch for in the report later is for any downside risks/surprises. A poor report may give markets more of a jolt and possibly exacerbate Fed pricing to the dovish side a bit more in the aftermath.

Otherwise, a "as you were" reaction may well be what ends up happening later. If anything else, I reckon risk assets will be the ones to watch out for here in the event of a decent/good report. That will allow markets to stay more upbeat ahead of the weekend.

That said, for today, Fed chair Powell's speech in Zurich will be the main attraction for markets. The US jobs report will have to settle for being second fiddle.