Expectations for Chinese GDP growth in 2020 are being cut quite hard

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Via Reuters polling of analysts (conducted Feb 7-13, 40 economists based in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, as well as Europe and the United States)

  • Q1 2020 GDP to grow 4.5% vs 5.9% in the January poll
  • Q2 to recover somewhat, to 5.7%
  • Full year 2020 GDP to grow 5.5% vs 5.9% in the January poll

Note, Q4 2019 came in at 6%

For the currency:

  • yuan to fall around 3% this month if coronavirus outbreak worsens

Some of the remarks in the Reuters piece:

  • economists were optimistic the economy would bounce back as soon as the second quarter, with growth then forecast to recover to a median 5.7%, according to the poll. That figure was pushed higher by several optimistic forecasts from economists based in mainland China. 

chief Asia economist at Pantheon in London

  • "The lost production probably will be made up over the remainder of this year. But some service sector activity simply will be lost... people aren't going to get their hair cut twice because they missed getting it cut in Q1, or buy two coffees to make up for missed consumption." 

 senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of China International in Beijing

  • "I think the virus will be under control by April. However, in the worst-case scenario, growth may fall to 2-3% in the first quarter and to 5% in (full-year) 2020"

Greater China economist at ING in Hong Kong:

  • "We do not expect a speedy recovery for the economy, even in the unlikely event that there are no new confirmed cases. After the coronavirus has been contained, it may still take four quarters to see a full recovery"
  • "Compared to 2003's SARS, this is a lot more damaging." 

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