Expectations of a rate cut from the RBNZ have risen following the Q1 labour market report

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

First quarter employment market data from New Zealand is here:

That headline doesn't look bad, does it? But its the details that are poor, and you don't have to dig too deep to find them:
  • participation dropped half a percent!  … this made the jobless rate look so good,
  • jobs growth fell
  • and wages came in under what was expected
The NZD ….. 
Just updating now, markets are pricing a >55% probability of an RBNZ rate cut on May 8 (OIS pricing). Prior to the data release pricing was just above 40%.

ASB on the data (in brief):
  • expect 50 basis points of OCR cuts
  • today's data increasing the probability of a May OCR cut
Meanwhile, NZD/USD has stabilised:

First quarter employment market data from New Zealand is here:

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