First quarter employment market data from New Zealand is here:
That headline doesn't look bad, does it? But its the details that are poor, and you don't have to dig too deep to find them:
- participation dropped half a percent! … this made the jobless rate look so good,
- jobs growth fell
- and wages came in under what was expected
The NZD …..
Just updating now, markets are pricing a >55% probability of an RBNZ rate cut on May 8 (OIS pricing). Prior to the data release pricing was just above 40%.
ASB on the data (in brief):
- expect 50 basis points of OCR cuts
- today's data increasing the probability of a May OCR cut
Meanwhile, NZD/USD has stabilised:
