President Dilma Roussef is expected to lead Brazil’s election on Sunday but there are two big questions:

  1. Will she earn more than 50% of votes and avoid a run-off (unlikely)
  2. Who will win second place? (Neves or Silva)

Silva was once the front-runner in the campaign but now may fail to advance to a runoff.

For markets, Dilma has lost the confidence of foreign money investors so any change may be welcome. On the other hand, a clear winner would add some stability.

It’s a tough call but markets would be best served by Roussef falling well-short of 50% and Neves earning the right to run in an Oct 26 runoff.