Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of February 2019 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, January 4, 2018:
- Median NFP estimate 180K (175k private)
- January 304K (highest since Feb 2018)
- Highest estimate 250k
- Lowest estimate 125k
- Average estimate 181K
- Standard deviation 27.6k
- Unemployment rate exp 3.9% vs 4.0% prior
- Prior participation rate 63.2%
- Underemployment U6 prior 8.1%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 3.3% y/y vs 3.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior (these were surprisingly soft last month)
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here's the December jobs story so far
- ADP 183K vs 300K prior (190K expected)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment 55.2 vs 57.8 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.3 vs 50.3 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 226K vs 225K prior
- Claims during reference week 236K
- Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 11.8 vs 12.6 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring 104.6 vs 103.7 prior
- December JOLTS 7335K vs 6888k prior
I don't see this as a particularly important non-farm payrolls report. It's not going to change the Federal Reserve's outlook. They're firmly on the sidelines for at least 4 more NFP reports, regardless of what Friday's number is.
That said, given the latest weakness in risk assets, it's more important than it was a few days ago. As I wrote earlier, the market has been reacting to the U-turn at central banks but it will start watching to see if the central bank actions have worked. If there's a sign of a further slowdown, there's going to be pain. Now I don't think the weakness is going to come from the US, but that doesn't mean we can't see some jitters on a single bad month.
As for secondary metrics, I think that unemployment and the participation rate are worth watching. I doubt wages will have an impact.
