February followed the seasonal trend
I wrote about two trades that benefitted strongly from seasonal trends at the start of February:
"In the past 15 years, oil has only fallen twice in February. The average gain since 2000 is 5% and the average in the past 10 years was 4.1%. It's the best month on the calendar and the start of a bullish seasonal trend that runs until the end of April," I wrote.
Make it gains in 14 of the past 16 years as crude has gained 2.7% mtd.
The seasonals were less definitive on the second trade.
"February is the time to start thinking about buying the Australian, New Zealand or Canadian dollar. It's the third-best month since 2000 for the Australian dollar but also the start of a strong period that includes March and April," I wrote.
The commodity currency trade proved to be a bit more selective. The Australian dollar was the top performer in the month but CAD was down slightly (0.5%) against the US dollar while the kiwi fell 1.2%.
The good news for commodity currency bulls is that the seasonal trend remains strong in the months ahead. I'll have more on that tomorrow as we prep for March seasonal trades.