–Solving US Fiscal Cliff Most Important Global Issue

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher Thursday
insisted there was “no such thing as QE infinity” and said no member of
the Fed intended to move in that direction.

Taking questions after a speech in Frankfurt, Fisher reiterated his
call for setting a clear limit to the Fed’s quantitative easing policy.

He said he was “taken aback that the term QE infinity was being
used in the marketplace…there’s no such thing. We are not going to go
that route.” As a result, “I do think it would be useful…that we
define how far we’re willing to go.”

Fisher reiterated his skepticism about the Fed’s forward guidance,
arguing it was a “question of credibility” if the Fed is committing
future board members to a specific policy.

Instead, Fisher said defining an unemployment variable for when to
begin tightening monetary policy would be “one way to go,” though he
repeated the Fed has less control over unemployment than it does over
price stability.

Asked when the U.S. unemployment rate might decline substantially,
which the Fed is looking for before tightening, Fisher responded: “Only
when we get clear signals from the fiscal side.”

Fed repeated his fear that, while the Fed has the instruments to
exit from its easy monetary policy, it would be difficult to achieve.
The exit “will be a heck of a lot harder because we’ve never done this
before…the buy side is always easy to do. The sell side, it’s a lot
more difficult.”

Fisher also said he expected Hurricane Sandy to have a “negative
impact” on US GDP in the fourth quarter, but he expected a bounce-back
in following quarters.

Fisher said resolving the US fiscal cliff standoff currently takes
primacy over the European sovereign debt crisis as a source of
uncertainty. “The most important thing for the world right now is
resolving the fiscal cliff,” he said.

Yet the Dallas Fed chief did not sound optimistic on the prospects
for a deal. He said “the odds are long” that a permanent deal will come
by the end of the year, when the fiscal cliff – a series of tax hikes
and spending cuts amounting to about 4% of GDP – are due to take
effect.”

At the same time he stressed: “I’m not advocating a specific fiscal
solution, other than begging for greater certainty.”

Fisher also acknowledged the European crisis was having a “direct
impact” on the U.S. economy through trade and by creating uncertainty.

“The European debt crisis is something obviously in need of
resolution and the authorities are working to achieve that resolution,”
Fisher said.

Fisher also offered his implicit backing to the euro project,
arguing that “a single currency is a good thing” that actually could
discipline governments when it comes to spending.

“It does limit that national tendency of a politician to just give
and give and give and not think about the cost,” Fisher said.

On regulation, he declined to say whether he believed the U.S.
should delay implementation of the Basel III capital standards, though
he acknowledged “problems” in the United States with Basel II.

Fisher said it was “too early to judge the efficacy of Basel III,”
though he also stressed that “we clearly need international standards.”

He reiterated his call to break up the largest US banks, arguing
that the Dodd-Frank financial legislation has “exacerbates the problem
of too-big-too fail.” As things stand, he said, “I seriously doubt” the
U.S. government would ever allow a systemically relevant institution to
fail.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: ccermak@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]