St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard speaks
- Reasonable chance of soft landing for US this year from fast 2018 growth, 2019 risks
- Bullard says businesses are adjusting to remain profitable even in the face of trade uncertainty
- Recent developments suggest the near term uncertainty about trade policy has abated somewhat, and will be less of an issue in 2020 that was in 2019
- Seemingly large gains in stocks last year influenced by late 2018 selloff. Index essentially unchanged from October 2018 to October 2019
- Oil shocks may be neutral on net for US
- Fed considerably more accommodative versus late 2018
- Geopolitical risk elevated but oil prices matter less
Bullard is a nonvoting member in 2020 he is generally thought to be a dove but softened that bias in the 2nd half of 2019
