His "all over the place" comments did nothing for the bearish EURUSD price action
Adam characterized the NY Fed Governor (voting member) Dudley's comments as being all over the place and indeed they were.
The dollar has been more strong off the US data of course but it has been a few hours since the break and fail below the 100 day MA at the 1.1070 area.. The 1.1091 level outlined in earlier posts has held over in the near term (see Red horizontal line in the char above). The pair is now testing the high post plunge corrective price and 38.2% of the day's range at 1.1131-35. What does it all mean? It does not mean the bear move is over, but it may all mean that the potential for another look at the 100 day MA, might have to wait until next week...
When you have an ambiguous Fed who probably does not want to see the dollar get too strong, you are going to get traders who feel the same way. Yes, we know liftoff is dependent on the data but no one really knows what the benchmarks are for that data.
One interesting thing he did say was : "Market needs caution interpreting FOMC dot plot" Why bring that up?.
The Fed cut the end of 2015 projections at the March meeting for rates from 1.125% to 0.625%. With rates at 0-0.25% now, that would imply two tightenings between now and end of the year (the 0.625% is the midpoint projection of rates). Is he saying that the dot plot is still too high? He sounds like someone who is not so anxious to tighten or worried about excessive strength in the economy. So he may be thinking "get the ball rolling" but just "rolling"
For the markets we are likely to get a little Dr Jeykll and Mr. Hyde type action especially on a Friday, but I think that is no surprise to most by now....
