Comments from the KC Fed President

  • Natural gas price gains relative to oil could reduce the competitiveness of US exports and create a headwind to recovery
  • Crisis-driven drop in oil-related tax revenue may force states to cut spending and create a further headwind
  • Low interst rates may spark oil industry M&A more than increased capex
  • Rise in renewables could reduce energy as a source of macro volatility

George isn't breaking any new ground here but the oil market will be an interesting one next year.

More:

  • US recovery is pretty uneven
  • Over next few years US economy will grow, unemployment will come down in the context of stable inflation
  • Risks to outlook include covid and what happens when fiscal support fades