Robert Kaplan is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Headlines via Reuters
- says US GDP may shrink 25% to 35% in second quarter, then grow in second half
- sees US GDP shrinking 4% to 5% in 2020
- sees US unemployment rate rising as high as mid-teens, falling to 7%-8% by year end
- says even after economy begins to reopen, consumers may be more cautious
- says financial and job insecurity might cause people to save more, spend less
- says he expects there will be a 'phased' return to work
- says US businesses to run at less than full capacity as economy reopens
- says ideally companies will be able to test workers for infection as they return to work
- asked about possible new fed programs to help economy, says 'stay tuned'
That array of main points on his outlook are mainly uncontroversial, his GDP projections are probably inaccurate … which is not a criticism, I don't know how anyone is coming up with these forecasts with much degree of certainty right now. Why do they even bother? Well, its a job for a lot of these folks and they have to start somewhere.
more to come
