–‘Skeptical’ That Further Asset Purchases To Produce Much Econ Gain
–Should Not Take Any Option Off The Table
–Current Policy Rate, Scale Of Balance Sheet Are Appropriate
–Most Prominent Source Of Risk Is Europe; ‘Considerable Vulnerability’

By Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis
Lockhart Tuesday said any additional large scale bond buying by the
Federal Reserve to boost U.S. growth is unlikely to have much of an
effect given the particular set of the headwinds, notably the European
sovereign debt crisis, that the economy faces.

In remarks prepared for the University of Georgia’s Terry College
of Business in Atlanta, Lockhart said it remains appropriate for the Fed
to hold its policy federal funds rate steady between zero to 25 basis
points, and to maintain the current size of its balance sheet.

However, Lockhart — who will be a voter on the Federal Open Market
Committee in 2012 — said he is very much against the central bank
conducting additional quantitative easing at this time.

“I am skeptical that further asset purchases will produce much gain
in terms of increased economic activity,” Lockhart said. “I don’t
believe further bond purchasing by the Fed is a potent policy option
given the set of circumstances we currently face.”

He was quick to add, however, under different circumstances this
policy tool could be “powerful and appropriate,” and that he does not
think any policy should be taken off the table.

Lockhart cast an eye over current conditions in the U.S. and
declared that while “the underlying sources that drive inflation appear
to be in check” — and inflation is settling into a range consistent
with the Fed’s price stability mandate — the economy is not creating
jobs at “a pace and volume sufficient to materially reduce the
unacceptably high rate of unemployment.”

He noted, however, that the composition of third quarter GDP may
bode well for the fourth quarter, as “it suggests we entered the fourth
quarter with leaner inventories and that demand from our trading
partners has held firm.”

As a result, Lockhart is predicting economic activity in the fourth
quarter to grow between 2.5% to 3%, based on current data. The most
significant drag will be government spending at all levels, while
capital goods spending, consumer purchases of autos, and exports are the
main drivers.

Looking ahead to next year, Lockhart said he expects the moderate
pace of growth to continue, the unemployment rate to come down slowly,
and inflation to be “decently behaved.”

There is, however, a “considerable” downside risk to this
baseline forecast, Lockhart warned, with Europe the prominent source.

While a recession in the Europe would hurt U.S. exports, Lockhart
said the “considerable vulnerability” for the U.S. is via its financial
system.

“In my view, the financial channel carries the greater potential of
significant disruption to the already slowly recovering U.S. economy,”
Lockhart said.

He added that, “I’m concerned about risk associated with the
financial sector not so much because of direct exposure of U.S.
financial institutions to sovereigns or even the most exposed European
banks, but rather the more nebulous prospect of market turbulence and
contagion.”

Lockhart did note that the United States’ own fiscal woes also pose
a significant risk as well. He said the failure of Congress’ super
committee to agree on a deficit reduction deal “adds to the pall of
uncertainty and weak confidence that holds back more robust recovery.”

He went to mention other headwinds and drags on U.S. growth, such
as the continued weakness of the housing market, and its impact on
consumer spending, a restructuring commercial real estate sector, and a
still recovering financial system.

Despite these domestic concerns, “none of these individually rivals
the potential for spillover from adverse developments in Europe,”
Lockhart said.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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