By Brai Odion-Esene
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles
Plosser made it clear Thursday that the Fed’s latest asset purchase
program is a “conditional” policy, whose fate depends on how it impacts
the U.S. economic recovery going forward.
In a briefing with reporters following remarks at the Cato
Institute in Washington, Plosser was asked point-blank if he was in
favor of the $600 billion asset purchase program. He repeated his past
argument that, for him, “the benefits where not large enough to outweigh
the costs.”
Going forward, Plosser said it is very important the Federal Open
Market Committee evaluates its decision on a regular basis to determine
whether or not the path of the economy changes.
“This is conditional policy,” he said, “we are making decisions
conditional on the state of the economy.”
“Depending on the path and state of the economy, we will make
decisions as appropriate as we go along.”
One of the main fears that led the Fed to implement more
quantitative easing was the worry that the U.S. economy could fall into
a deflationary trap.
Plosser, however, argued that considering the large amount of
liquidity being held by banks, there is “plenty of kindling” that could
turn into “lots of inflation” down the road once lending resumes again.
So deflation in the U.S. is not sustainable in the long-run, he
said, adding that he does not subscribe to the view that deflation per
se is a bad thing. A nation can have deflation and still growth, Plosser
said. Instead, he said, it is unexpected deflation that is a threat.
Plosser said he is not worried that European sovereign debt
troubles will spillover into the U.S., saying, “I have never been one of
those people that found contagion under every rock.”
In light of the manner that EU authorities handled the worries over
Greece in the spring, Plosser said the financial markets are more
confident that the current Ireland issue “will be handled in a less
disruptive way … . That reduces some of the uncertainty about how
governments are going to respond in a crisis.”
Plosser said he believes that the setback in the recovery seen
during the summer months had more to do with fears of a possible
spillover from European sovereign debt troubles, as well as big drop-off
in the housing market following the expiration of first-time home buyer
tax credits in April.
“I think that scared a lot of people,” Plosser said.
To compound the problem were the confusing jobs numbers being seen
at the time, he continued, with the hiring of temporary census workers
distorting the monthly non-farm payrolls data. So there was a lot of
“angst” over that period.
Since then evidence shows that the economy is returning to a low to
moderate growth rate, Plosser said, and a sharp rebound is not expected.
“I expect growth to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 3% to 3.5% next
year,” he said.
Some members of the U.S. Congress have said they intend to
introduce legislation that restricts the Fed to just one mandate,
securing price stability.
Asked by Market News International to comment on this, Plosser said
he has always believed the Fed’s primary objective needs to be price
stability.
“Therefore that’s ample reason in my view to make that our primary
mandate,” he said. Plosser also repeated that the FOMC needs to have an
explicit inflation target.
He went to say that there are times when having a dual mandate ends
up distorting the Fed’s ability to focus on a stable set of objectives
and goals.
On the fierce debate that has erupted since the FOMC announced
additional large-scale asset purchases on Nov. 3, Plosser said the
debate over the efficacy of QE2, within the Fed anyway, is not
politically motivated.
“We are in a regime … where we’ve never been before,” he said,
without clear guidelines on how to proceed. Not it is no surprise that
there are disagreements, Plosser said.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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