The ratings agency says the recent increase in coronavirus infections poses a downside risk to thier expectations of a recovery in domestic consumption in the second half of this year.

  • vaccination rollout has accelerated since May
  • the government target of a 70% vaccination level by November looks likely to be achieved
  • Fitch forecast 4.5% GDP growth in 2021 & 3% GDP growth for SK in 2022
  • the scarring of the economy from COVID-19 should be relatively limited in South Korea

Fith BoK outlook:

  • expects a 25 bp hike in H2 of 2021
  • two additional 25bp hikes expected in 2022