Fitch says ongoing uncertainty regarding NAFTA raises trade risks for US states
Fitch ratings on Nafta negotiations
- Says ongoing Nafta uncertainty lifts trade risks for US states
- Protracted uncertainty around Nafta renegotiations could elevate risks for some US states with most to lose from a Nafta termination
- Fitch's base case continues to be a favorable conclusion to Nafta talks that does not materially disrupt trade in bloc
- Talks are likely to resume, although full ratification of a revised agreement is unlikely before 2019
- Some of highest tariff rates could be imposed on farm, livestock, energy and automotive products
- Fitch says if Nafta terminated & WTO rules take their place, US states with greater trade exposure to Mexico to be more at risk of higher/new exports tariffs
I guess being positive is a good thing, everyone says so. But … when is it time to recognise that progress seems non-existent? How long does this go on for and we (Fitch et al) remain optimistic?
Is this another manifestation of the underestimating of Trump?