Germany, France, UK and the Eurozone preliminary PMIs are due Tuesday 23 June 2020
0715 GMT from France:
Manufacturing
- expected 46.0, prior 40.6
Services
- expected 45.2, prior 31.1
Composite
- expected 47.0, prior 32.1
0730 GMT Germany
Manufacturing
- expected 42.3, prior 36.6
- expected 42.0 prior 32.6
- expected 44.3, prior 32.3
0800 GMT Eurozone
Manufacturing
- expected 44.8, prior 39.4
- expected 41.2, prior 30.5
- expected 42.0, prior 31.9
0830 GMT UK
Manufacturing
- expected 45.0, prior 40.7
- expected 39.0, prior 29.0
- expected 41.0, prior 30.0
Preview thoughts (these in brief via RBC):
- Euro area member states have accelerated their reopening plans ahead of schedule due to consistently falling coronavirus new cases. This easing of lockdown measures is captured in the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker, which has shown that the stringency of measures in June is on average 55, weighted by GDP across the big 4 member states, versus 73 in the first 20 days of May. Hence, we would expect to see the PMIs in Germany and Italy outperform those in France and Spain in June.
For the UK
- will again be influenced mainly by the extent of reopening of the economy at the time when the fieldwork for the survey was conducted. As lockdown restrictions were eased from mid‐ May onwards, businesses have been reopening. With the 'flash' survey typically conducted sometime in the middle two weeks of the month, that gradual reopening of the economy should, even if retail is excluded from the survey, ensure that the Services PMI shows further improvement this month.
